As I’ve stated before, Trudeau and the Liberals made a very specific promise in 2015. It is still online and reads:
We will make every vote count.
We are committed to ensuring that 2015 will be the last federal election conducted under the first-past-the-post voting system.
In 2017, the Liberals decided that their chances of another majority government were strong enough to break the promise.
I predicted, “If you decide to keep FPTP (or implement some mushy non-PR alternative like “Instant Runoff”) you will lose the 2019 election, and you will lose badly.”
The latest polls aren’t looking quite as rosy for the Liberals.
In 2015, millions of traditionally Green, NDP, and even Conservative supporters joined together and voted strategically to vote out Harper and bring the Liberals into power. This was based on the explicit promise that Proportional Representation (PR) would make the next (2019) election a fair and balanced one, where every vote counted.
If they had kept their promise, the chance of a Conservative government would be near-zero, as the Liberals could easily partner with the NDP and/or Greens to form a coalition.
But the Liberals were greedy and made a bet that they’d be able to hold onto their absolute power.
More than a few people still remember this, and certainly won’t be voting strategically this time.
Failing to follow through with the promise to implement PR could be the single largest strategic mistake the Trudeau Liberal team ever made, and it could easily cost them this election.
Who knows, perhaps their bet will pay off.
But if they lose, they’ll at least know why.